Second-Quarter Economic Growth Holds Steady Consumer Spending Revised Lower
Sep 26, 2024 .
- AdminThe US economic growth rate held steady in the second quarter, while consumer spending was unexpectedly revised lower, according to a third estimate released Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Real gross domestic product increased at a 3% annualized rate in the June quarter, unchanged from a previously projected pace. The consensus was for a downward revision to a 2.9% reading in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. In the first quarter, real GDP rose 1.6%, up from the previously estimated 1.4% rate, according to government data.
"A solid showing, at least in the rear-view mirror, of domestic activity reinforces the need for a tempered and patient approach to subsequent (Federal Reserve) rate reductions," Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza and Economist Lauren Henderson said in a note to clients.
Last week, the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee lowered its benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points versus a Bloomberg-compiled consensus indicating a 25-basis-point cut. The FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections showed at the time that members cut their 2024 economic growth outlook to 2% from 2.1%, but continued to see the 2025 and 2026 rates at 2% each, respectively.
The BEA data showed that second-quarter consumer spending — as measured by personal consumption expenditures — was downwardly revised to 2.8% growth from a 2.9% gain projected in the second estimate, which was the Bloomberg consensus.
The latest GDP data saw upward revisions to private inventory investment and federal government spending, and downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and exports, the bureau said.
Headline PCE inflation increased 2.5% in the second quarter, while core PCE — which excludes the volatile food and energy components — rose 2.8%, both unchanged from previous estimates, government data showed.
"With no indications of a downturn or mounting weakness ahead, despite modest cooling in some reads on labor market momentum, the focus appears to be still on the lingering challenge of returning prices to a sustainable 2% level," Piegza and Henderson said.