Tesla is slated to report third-quarter delivery figures on Wednesday. They should be good. Just don't expect a big positive reaction from the stock.

Wall Street has taken some of the fun and mystery from Tesla's quarterly release with its obsession for uncovering any shred of data that might give it an edge in predicting outcomes.

Better, more reliable information, of course, is a good thing. What the evolution of analyst tracking means, however, is investors should pay more attention to the stock before delivery numbers are released. That is becoming more indicative of how things are going at the electric vehicle maker than the reaction to the actual delivery number.

Take first quarter delivery numbers. Tesla delivered about 387,00 cars, missing some of the lowest Wall Street estimates by about 10%. Shares dropped almost 5% after the disappointment. That's not too bad considering the magnitude of the miss. But shares dropped almost 14% in the month coming into the delivery report, when analysts started to size up how the quarter was going.

Things turned out better in the second quarter. Tesla delivered some 444,000 cars. That was a little better than expected and much better than the first quarter. Share rose about 10%, but they rose almost 18% in the month leading into the delivery report.

Investors seem to have a better indication of how things are going to go than in the past. One reason: The Street is doing better. Analyst reports previewing Tesla's quarterly deliveries now include references to app downloads, weekly car registration data in China, monthly car sales in the U.S. and Europe, and vehicle identification numbers from U.S. assembly plants, among other things.

The goal is to produce an estimate as close as possible to the actual outcome, which should lower stock volatility and give analysts with the best estimates bragging rights.

Beyond anecdotes, there is some evidence analysts are getting more accurate. In 2018 and 2019, analyst estimates missed Tesla delivery numbers by about 5% on average. That number is down to about 4% over the past two years.

One consequence of better estimates appears to be Tesla stock reacting more ahead of delivery release. If deliveries miss, the stock is more likely to be down in the month leading into the result than it is the day after the report.

That kind of trading action shouldn't surprise investors too much. The stock market is always forward-looking, with investors reacting to changing estimates, and what they hear from analysts, heading into any delivery report.

Coming into Monday trading, Tesla stock has rallied about 22% over the past month. So third quarter delivery numbers should be fine. Most of the Wall Street preview reports indicate sales are up from the same time a year ago, partly on the strength of Chinese deliveries.

Currently, Wall Street expects about 460,000 EVs delivered, up about 6% compared with the third quarter of 2023. Growth is important. In the first half of 2024, Tesla delivered about 831,000 vehicles, down about 7% from a year earlier.

Slowing growth weighed on investor sentiment. Shares were down roughly 45% year to date in mid-April, at the lows of 2024.

Tesla stock has staged a remarkable comeback. Coming into the week, shares were up about 5% so far this year. Returning to growth is a big reason. There are other reasons, too, such as AI optimism.

After delivery results, Tesla hosts its Robotaxi Day on Oct. 10 in Hollywood. Analysts and investors will be listening to how Tesla will attempt to make money from its self-driving car technology.